Reading
the tea leaves is difficult in South Asia where governments
topple like nine pins and forces mutiny en masse. But it is
also a region where rebels come over ground and join the peace
process, governments are returned to power and militaries
cooperate to bring down non state actors. The past few days
provide a testimony of this truism.
The inflection point remains India, the largest country in the
region, also what can be truly called as the greatest
democracy today. With the return of the sober Dr. Manmohan
Singh to power in New Delhi in overwhelming numbers the Indian
electorate has decisively voted in favor of stability in the
country.
As the Congress-led UPA emerged as the winner in the elections
with overwhelming majority with Congress the single-largest
party and UPA the top coalition, with 201 seats and UPA has
262 seats, hopes of a stable regime in New Delhi led to
soaring of the Bombay Stock Exchange well past the 14,000
mark. While the Sensex may not be a fair indicator of the turn
of events in the future, it surely indicates that people are
willing to put their money where they did their votes.
The overwhelming victory is seen to have a number of spin off
effects such as emergence of national parties and reduced
impact of regional parties in national polity. The main gain
would be that the Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh has
returned to office largely unencumbered by demands and
conditions that his former UPA partners had placed on him,
leading to compromises that weren't in the best interest of
the nation. Now it would be an unrestrained and relatively
unhindered Congress Party which can surge ahead to take
decisions in National interest particularly in terms of
economic liberalization
At the national level, people believe that the Congress could
provide a cohesive, balanced government without raising issues
which were divisive and which did not promise peace and
prosperity. Therefore it is this which has propelled the
Congress overall where it is being seen as a party which can
deliver on both fronts, communal harmony and development, two
key challenges faced by any government in India.
The emergence of Mr. Rahul Gandhi has two effects. The first
is the slur of dynasty. Mr. Gandhi would have to live with the
same despite the excellent work done by him in UP to turn the
tide for the Congress. The demand to place him as an
influential minister would rise in the Congress party. More
over the party is also known for a dynastic characteristic and
trait and therefore there is a high degree of sycophancy. But
on the whole, Mr. Rahul Gandhi has done his hard work for
attaining this distinction and cannot be denied a lead role
any more. For India it spells that a decisive young leader is
emerging albeit with the baggage of dynasty.
The Indian election exercise is also evidence of efficiency of
the Indian state willing to function, when it wants to do so
or is willing to do so. The virtually spotless elections are a
result of massive preparations as well as experience which has
been build up over the past sixty years. Thus identity cards
for voters and electronic voting machines are a part of the
flawless system. So are the thousands of khaki clad policemen
in and around the election booths who want to resist booth
capturing.
Finally the people of India have got what they deserved the
most, a stable and strong government with a progressive agenda
of communal harmony and stability rather than divisiveness
what ever be the other factors involved. And the people
believe that the Congress despite its many failings would give
it both.
On the foreign policy front with the Congress led UPA back in
power stability of government would imply a strong India with
better bargaining power internationally as well as regionally.
The hesitation in greater engagement with the US and West that
the UPA had in its first tenure would be greatly reduced.
However this is negated by the less enthusiasm that President
Obama seems to be having for India. Pakistan will be a
continued challenge and Islamabad will now have to show
results on the Mumbai Terror investigations as well as
neutralize the terrorist groups operating thereof. China will
not be able to burgeon its way through the region as a strong
India would considerably shift the power balance towards New
Delhi. Economic policy would be critical for the new
government as with global slow down it would face a very
difficult choices. Regionally a strong India would
considerably lower the bargaining power of its neighbors.
In neighboring Sri Lanka, the civil war between the LTTE and
the Sri Lankan Armed Forces has come to an end with the death
of a large number of hard core leaders of the LTTE including
Mr. Prabhakaran the confirmation of which has not come
categorically. This brings hope to both the Tamils and the
Sinhala in the country, with signs of at least one trouble
spot in the region cooling off.
In Bangladesh, the Awami League is slowly assuming a firm grip
on power after the rebellion by the BDR in February. Hopefully
it would continue to rule on its strengths rather than
antagonistic politics of the past.
Nepal is of course in a political swirl, but the Nepali
politicians are known to balance their differences at the last
minute when everything seems lost, that is the experience
since 2006 and hopefully we will see the end to the present
crisis of Army versus the Maoists soon.
Afghanistan and Pakistan will remain turbulent, but with other
states in South Asia slowly showing stability, the ring of
fire which had become so popular with Indian strategic
community seems to be slowly reducing to a unstable West.
Yet these are the beginnings of some good tidings to a region
which has the largest concentration of humanity in poverty in
the World and should therefore cheer many.
Source: The Bangladesh Today