The government is going to expand its next Annual
Development Programme (ADP) to near about Tk 29000 crore, ignoring
experts' suggestion to limit the development budget within it's
capacity to implement.
"To create employment opportunities and
maintain growth prospects we need a bigger development plan," Planning
Minister AK Khandaker said at a seminar disagreeing with some
economists suggestion to contain the ADP to its present fiscal's size
of Tk 26000 crore.
The Bangladesh Institute of Development
Studies (BIDS) organised the seminar titled, 'Meeting the challenges of
Global Recession and its Impact on the Economy: Recommendations for the
National budget for FY 2009-10'.
"I can't recall the exact
figure of ADP but, it would be around Tk 29,000 crore," he told
reporters after emerging from the seminar.
The ADP allocations
are likely to be finalised today at the National Economic Council
meeting to be chaired by the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
The ADP portfolio for FY 2008-09 was Tk 25,600 crore and Tk 26,000 crore for FY 2007-08.
BIDS, the government's research arm, however, recommended the ADP in FY 2009-10 be limited to Tk 26,000 crore.
"Alternatively,
given the low implementation rate, the target of ADP could be set at a
higher level, say at around Tk 30,000 crore," M Asaduzzaman, a BIDS
research director, said in the key-note presentation.
"The ADP
size should be kept small to ensure project quality as the
administration has limited capacity to implement projects," he said,
adding that the ADP for next fiscal should be a realistic one, as the
ambitious ones cannot be implemented.
He said the ADP priority should focus on ongoing road projects, agriculture, power and social sectors.
Bangladesh's
economy has shown reasonable stability until now despite external
threats in the backdrop of global financial turmoil, said Asaduzzaman.
"The economy is likely to grow at around 6 percent if the present
economic trends continue," he noted.
The economy, however, has
shown some signs of slowdown, especially in terms of export earnings
and remittance inflows, the BIDS official added.
"Overall export
growth led by readymade garments sector is still satisfactory but
sectors like leather, shrimp, jute and jute goods have been hit hard."
Dr
Asaduzzaman said the government initiative to tackle the fallout of
global economic recession was on the right track so far but efficient
implementation remains the major challenge.
BIDS suggested a
crisis coping fund for three years to meet demands like loans to export
entities with working capital difficulties due to a cut in recent
export orders, low cost employment loans for retrenched workers and
funding to start small business by recent returnee migrants.
It suggested allocation of Tk 1,500 subsidy per acre of farmland for agriculture inputs, including fertilizer.
On
investment priorities for the budget, the government's research arm
said agriculture and infrastructure should be focused with special
attention to energy.
It suggested a more direct procurement
system rather than through millers along with higher allocation for
cutting-edge technology and a single farm subsidy in the case of
subsidies for both diesel and fertiliser.
The planning minister
told the seminar that the budget would focus on improving quality of
public expenditure, supporting agriculture and rural economy, and
addressing quality and equity issues in education and health.
He said the government has attached high priority to the power sector.
"We
want the fund to reach poor people through the development works under
the ADP," he said. "We want to allocate more, but there is resource
constraint."
Replying to a question, Khandaker said ADP
implementation has not been up to the mark during the current fiscal
year due to various reasons including the impact of global recession.
The
session chaired by BIDS director general Mustafa K Mujeri also heard
from ex-finance minister M Saiduzzaman, PKSF's managing director Kazi
Mesbahuddin, BRAC executive director Mahbub Hossain and BIDS research
director Rushidan Islam Rahman.
Source: The New Nation